TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Copa América quarterfinal power rankings: How far is Brazil behind Argentina and Uruguay?

Copa América 2024 is TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centerdown to its final eight teams.

The knockout stage begins Thursday when Lionel Messi and Argentina face Ecuador, continues Friday when Venezuela meets Canada, and ends Saturday when Colombia plays Panama and Brazil meets Uruguay.

Only three games stand in each team’s way to the Copa América final, which will be played on July 14 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Here are USA TODAY Sports’ Copa América quarterfinal power rankings:

8. Panama

No team in the quarterfinals allowed more goals in group play than Panama (5). With the worse odds to win of any team in the quarterfinal stage (+850 to beat Colombia), Panama can at least hang its hat on reaching the knockout stage of this Copa América.

7. Ecuador

The math worked out in Ecuador’s favor, relying on their 3-1 win over Jamaica and a scoreless draw against Mexico to advance to the quarterfinal stage. But let’s be frank here: With +725 odds to win its quarterfinal matchup, Ecuador doesn’t stand a chance against world champion Argentina.

6. Canada

Traditionally, Canada should be last on this list. But goalie Maxime Crépeau’s work has helped Canada reach the quarterfinal, leading all goalkeepers with 16 saves during the group stage.

While the defense is sublime, the offense has been nearly nonexistent with just one goal in three games. It’s pretty obvious, but Canada will need to score to advance. Canada has +180 odds to beat Venezuela in the quarterfinal, which feels considerably low considering the lack of scoring.

5. Brazil

Brazil has the talent, but they haven’t been able to put it all together outside of their 4-1 win over Paraguay in the group stage. To make matters worse, reigning Champions League winner Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid won’t be able to play in the quarterfinal because of two yellow cards incurred in the group stage.

Can Brazil’s other standouts such as Rodrygo and Raphinha step up in the quarterfinal against Uruguay? It feels like a mounting feat for this Brazilian group to accomplish.

4. Venezuela

Venezuela took care of business in group stage, winning all three of its matches like Argentina and Uruguay did, and allowing just one goal to Ecuador in its first match. It has scored six goals in the group stage, tied for second with Colombia and Panama, and lost just one of their last eight competitions.

Venezuela should reach the semifinal, with +160 odds to beat Canada in the quarterfinal.

3. Colombia

Colombia nearly beat Brazil on Tuesday night, if not for a goal disallowed by VAR and a borderline offside call. Still, the Colombians have been on a roll, unbeaten in their past 26 games. The momentum carried into their 1-1 draw against Brazil, not only winning Group D, but delaying a match with Uruguay until the semifinals.

James Rodriguez has been instrumental, leading all players with three assists on Colombia’s six goals during group play. And Colombia’s ball-dominant play owning nearly 60 percent of possession, which trailed only Argentina, Mexico and Brazil in group play, bodes well for their chances.

2. Uruguay

The third-best odds to win Copa America behind Argentina and Brazil, Uruguay has exceeded its expected goals (6.0) with nine scored during the tournament, two each by Darwin Núñez and Maximiliano Araújo to reach the quarterfinal.

Like Argentina, Uruguay has seen only six shots on goal from opponents with its only goal allowed coming in the closing minutes of a 3-1 win over Panama.

Uruguay has one feather in its cap that the others don’t: A 2-0 win over Argentina last November in Buenos Aires. If Uruguay gets past Colombia in the semifinal, it could beat Argentina again in the final.

1. Argentina

Lautaro Martinez leads all players with four goals scored. Dibu Martinez is one of the best international goalies, and was the only player with three clean sheets in group play. And, of course, there’s Lionel Messi.

Here’s two gripes with Argentina: While the world champs have dominated with a tournament-best 66.3 percent possession and are second with 52 shots in group play, their 23 shots on target have resulted in just five goals. Argentina has been timely with its goals, but have not cashed in as much as their expected goal figure (7.9) indicates.

Messi has been held scoreless in two matches and withheld in one match due to injury. His right groin/adductor injury is a concern in the knockout stage.

Still, the reigning World Cup and Copa America champions are considered the favorites to win this tournament.