PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:The GOP expects to keep Kansas’ open House seat. Democratic Rep. Davids looks tough to beat

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TOPEKA,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Kan. (AP) — Republicans expected a former Kansas attorney general’s political comeback in Tuesday’s election to keep an open U.S. House seat in GOP hands while the party faced a tougher challenge in trying to oust the only Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation.

Republican Derek Schmidt sought the 2nd Congressional District seat held by retiring two-term Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner. Schmidt, who served three terms as attorney general, was coming off a narrow loss in the 2022 governor’s race and faced Nancy Boyda, making her own comeback bid as the last Democrat to hold the seat.

In the 3rd District in the Kansas City area, Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids faced Republican Prasanth Reddy, a doctor and former vice president of two medical research companies. Most of the district’s voters are in suburbs that have been friendly to Davids.

In the state’s two other districts, Republican Reps. Tracey Mann and Ron Estes were expected to win reelection comfortably.

Democrats have held the 2nd District seat previously, but not since Boyda served a single, two-year term and lost her race for reelection in 2008. LaTurner won both of his two terms by about 15 percentage points and would have likely cruised to victory again, but he announced in April that he wanted to spend more time with his children.

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Schmidt is often affable in public, and he worked early in his career for two moderate Republicans, U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum Baker and Gov. Bill Graves, before serving in the state Senate and being elected attorney general in 2010. That’s created lingering distrust among hard-right Republicans.

But Schmidt easily won a five-person primary this year — partly because former President Donald Trump declared in a social media endorsement post that Schmidt was “An America First Patriot” and, “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

In the 3rd District, Davids gained national attention when she unseated a Republican incumbent in 2018 as a Native American, lesbian and former mixed martial arts fighter. Republicans still lump her in with the most liberal members of Congress. Her vocal support of abortion rights helps in her district, but she’s also positioned herself as a business-friendly and pragmatic centrist.

The key to a 3rd District victory is heavily suburban Johnson County, the state’s most populous county. Trump’s support has waned there since his victory in the 2016 presidential race, hurting Republicans, while Davids’ margins of victory have grown.

The 1st District that Mann represents includes the liberal northeastern Kansas enclave of Lawrence, home to the main University of Kansas campus, but its influence can’t overcome the GOP’s strength in the rest of the district covering the state’s western third and much of central Kansas. Mann is a former Kansas lieutenant governor who’s had no trouble winning his two previous terms.

His Democratic opponent was Paul Buskirk, an academic counselor and adviser for student athletes at the University of Kansas.

The 4th District of south-central Kansas is centered on Estes’ hometown of Wichita, and he’s a former two-term state treasurer. He’s held the seat since winning a special election in 2017 to replace Mike Pompeo, who was appointed by Trump to be CIA director and later U.S. secretary of state.

His Democratic opponent is Esau Freeman, a painter and union leader who is best known for advocating the legalization of marijuana.