EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Abortion rights (and 2024 election playbooks) face critical vote on Issue 1 in Ohio

Ohio is EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Centerholding a hastily called and highly charged special election Tuesday that could determine the fate of abortion rights in the state and fuel political playbooks nationally heading into 2024.

If passed in Tuesday's special election, Issue 1 would make it more difficult to change the state's constitution, raising the threshold to enact new amendments to 60% of the vote, instead of a simple majority of 50% plus one.

Republicans pushed for the election to try and preempt a November ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution. The higher threshold required if Issue 1 passes would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the November proposal to succeed, based on polling figures.

Advocates on both sides in recent days have been imploring Ohioans to turn out at the polls.

“We’ve got to finish strong," Ohio AFL-CIO president Tim Burga told volunteers on Sunday. "We’ve got to leave it all on the table, leave it all on the field, and drive this thing home."

What does Issue 1 in Ohio do?

In addition to changing the threshold to enact constitutional amendments, it would:

• Require citizens who want to place an amendment on the ballot to collect signatures from at least 5% of voters from the last gubernatorial election in all 88 counties, instead of the current 44.
• Eliminate a 10-day cure period that allows citizens to replace any signatures deemed faulty by the secretary of state's office.

Who's funding the Ohio Issue 1 campaigns? Donors from Illinois, D.C. and California

The campaigns for and against Issue 1 are relying heavily on donors from California to Washington, D.C. as they blast the influence of special interests on Ohio politics.

Opponents say Issue 1 is a power grab

Opponents gathered at a union hall in Columbus last week to sound the alarm about Issue 1. A packed lineup of speakers, including former Gov. Ted Strickland and former GOP Attorney General Betty Montgomery, accused the issue's backers of trying to take power away from Ohioans.

"When you have focused authority in one branch of government, it is just an invitation for corruption," Montgomery said. She pointed to former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, who was sentenced in June to 20 years in prison in the largest corruption scandal in state history.

Canvassers fanned out across Columbus to knock on doors. Unlike earlier in the summer, voters who answered their doors knew all about Issue 1 − and most of them planned to vote no. One of the volunteers, Claudia Cortez, said she's never seen people this angry about an election.

“How much more power do they want?" Cortez said. "Do they want to suck the blood of the working people?"

'Ohio is truly the battleground'

Supporters of Issue 1 were just as energized.

Republicans gathered at a Union County farm on Sunday to hear from party officials and candidates about the importance of Issue 1. Their pitch: Passing this issue is critical to ensuring progressive ideas, such as abortion access and minimum wage increases, don't find their way into the constitution.

"Ohio is truly the battleground," said Mehek Cooke, an attorney who spoke for the anti-abortion group Protect Women Ohio. "They started in Ohio to test us, to test our fundamental values and ideals."

The Union County event featured U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, and Kari Lake, a Republican who lost last year's race for Arizona governor. While Moreno and Jordan mentioned Issue 1, the three also used their remarks to discuss the 2024 election and attack President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

Still, Tuesday's election was the focus among Republicans statewide.

"One of the reasons there's such discord in this country is that we've become all or nothing," state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, said during a stop at the Ohio State Fair. "So if we're going to change the constitution − documents that are designed to support our beliefs, our cultures, our traditions, our people and our rights − if we're going to change that, let's have a complete buy-in."

Dolan is also running in the Republican U.S. Senate primary for the chance to take on Brown in 2024.

Both sides believe their bases are fired up, and they're encouraged by surprisingly robust early voting turnout. But it remains to be seen how that enthusiasm will translate to Election Day − and which campaign was most effective in selling its message to Ohioans.

"I think Issue 1 is going to be super close," U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, told reporters at the state fair. "You could have a million and a half, maybe 2 million votes. It's probably going to be decided by a few thousand people. So get out there and make your voices heard. Even if you disagree with me, get out there and make your voice heard."

Contributing: USA TODAY Newsletter Writer Nicole Fallert. Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.