PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:GOP tries to break Connecticut Democrats’ winning streak in US House races

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It has been 18 years since Connecticut voted to send a Republican to Washington. Republican George Logan will try to end the party’s long losing streak Tuesday in a rematch with U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center the three-term Democrat who defeated him two years ago by a margin of less than 1% of the vote.

The race between Hayes and Logan is among the state’s most closely watched contests on an Election Day when voters will also choose state legislators, a U.S. senator and the next U.S. president.

In their first matchup in 2022, Hayes defeated Logan by just 2,004 votes. This time, Hayes is hoping to get an extra boost from sharing the ballot with Vice President Kamala Harris.

“There’s absolutely a lot more enthusiasm since Harris entered the race at the top of the ticket,” said Hayes, the first Black woman to represent Connecticut in Congress. “We have had at all of our headquarters throughout the district, people show up to volunteer, women show up to phone bank or door knock.”

Logan, a mechanical engineer and former state senator who now works as a community relations director for a public water supply company, has promoted himself as an independent-minded Republican who wouldn’t be beholden to the national party.

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He has also focused heavily on his personal background. If elected, the Afro-Latino son of Guatemalan immigrants would become the first Hispanic member of Congress from Connecticut.

“I believe Washington is broken and needs to be fixed. I want to be part of the solution,” he told reporters after a debate with Hayes. “I want to work in a bipartisan basis.”

The race is playing out in a district in the northwestern part of the state where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2020.

Logan said he would vote for Trump, but he has walked a careful line on the campaign trail.

He avoided talking about the Republican presidential nominee or aligning himself with Trump’s policies and the MAGA movement. Instead, he spoke repeatedly about being focused on the needs of the district and not the contentious presidential race, pledging to be an “independent voice” who would work with whoever won the White House.

The race has mostly been a reboot of 2022, with Logan even reusing some of his same advertising. He has criticized Hayes for voting “with the failed Biden-Harris administration 99% of the time” and has focused heavily on economic issues. Hayes has accused him of being a risk to abortion rights and siding with “extremist” Republicans in Washington. Logan has said he supports abortion rights.

Connecticut has been challenging territory for Republicans in recent decades. The last Republican to win a House seat representing the state was former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays, who was voted out of office in 2008.

Incumbent Democrats in the state’s other four congressional districts are also running for reelection, including U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney in the eastern part of the state. He is seeking a 10th term in a rematch race against former Republican state Rep. Mike France, who he beat by 18 points two years ago.

U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy is also seeking a third term, running in a rematch against Republican Matt Corey, a small business owner who has pitched himself as “the fighter Donald Trump needs by his side.” Murphy defeated Corey by a wide margin in 2018.

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The last Republican senator from Connecticut was Lowell Weicker, who lost in 1988 and later left the party.

All state legislators are also up for reelection this year. Democrats currently hold a two-thirds majority in the state Senate but are just short in the House of Representatives. If they secure a net gain of three House seats, without losing any Senate seats, Democrats will have a supermajority in the General Assembly needed to override a gubernatorial veto.