NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Fantasy football rankings: Sleeper picks for every position in 2024

Fantasy football leagues are NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerwon by players outperforming their draft positions. These sleepers give a return on investment that can overcome potential pitfalls across your team due to injuries or other issues.

In 2023, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua likely won a lot of fantasy football leagues after entering the season ranked as WR101 (the 101st wide receiver drafted, on average) per FantasyPros. He finished the season as a top-five wide receiver in all formats. Detroit Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown was WR10 before the season and ended the year as the No. 3 wide receiver in fantasy football.

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Sleepers like Nacua don't come around often but ones like St. Brown can make the difference between a championship and summer punishments for last place. Here are two players at each position who could outperform their current average draft position (ADP) and position ranking, per FantasyPros aggregate data:

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2024 fantasy football sleepers: Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 140, QB20)

• 2023 stats: 326-of-521 passing, 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions | 254.3 fantasy points

Stafford managed to finish last year as QB15 despite missing two games and wide receiver Cooper Kupp. It's hard to imagine he'll take a step back with Kupp returning and an upgraded offensive line, specifically in the interior.

Los Angeles lost defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and the Rams' defense may take a step back in 2024. That would put Los Angeles in high-scoring games. Stafford's ADP puts him behind the likes of Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Kirk Cousins. With Sean McVay still on the sidelines, Stafford is a great value choice as a QB2 or low-end QB1 if you prioritize your resources elsewhere.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (ADP 171, QB25)

• 2023 stats: 149-of-255 passing, 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions | 106.1 fantasy points

Levis is a dual-threat quarterback entering his first full season as a starter with upgrades at the wide receiver position and a new play caller in head coach Brian Callahan, who has a track record of success from his time in Cincinnati. Callahan also brought along his father Bill who is one of the best offensive line coaches in the league.

Levis is currently ranked behind Geno Smith and Bo Nix by ADP. You don't have to squint to see him outperforming that position as at least a QB2.

2024 fantasy football sleepers: Running back

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 149, RB44)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 361 yards rushing, two touchdowns; 17 receptions, 144 yards receiving, two touchdown | 91.5 fantasy points

Ezekiel Elliott is back in Dallas but is four years and 896 carries removed from his last Pro Bowl season with the Cowboys in 2019. He set career-lows in yards from scrimmage (955) and touchdowns (five) in 2023.

Dowdle split time last year in the Cowboys' backfield with Tony Pollard, who is now in Tennessee. The Cowboys offense may take a step back in 2024 - especially if the CeeDee Lamb contract situation worsens - but Dowdle should have plenty of opportunity to finish better than RB44 as a more explosive option than Elliott.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 73, RB24)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 1,035 yards rushing, eight touchdowns, one fumble lost; 29 receptions, 170 yards | 195.5 fantasy points

Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith as the new offensive coordinator for 2024. Smith's reputation for a strong running game and Pittsburgh's upgrades along the offensive line in the 2024 NFL Draft make Harris and fellow Steelers running back Jaylen Warren popular sleeper picks this season.

Warren was a more efficient runner last season but Harris may be the better sleeper for one simple reason: size. He's one of the bigger running backs in the league at 6 feet, 1 inch tall and 242 pounds, compared to Warren at 5-feet-8 and 215. Smith's shown a preference for bigger backs at previous stops in Tennessee (Derrick Henry) and Atlanta (Tyler Allgeier). That could give Harris the edge over Warren.

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2024 fantasy football sleepers: Wide receiver

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (ADP 88, WR37)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 51 receptions, 717 yards, five touchdowns | 152.7 fantasy points

Johnson was traded to Carolina this offseason as the Panthers build around second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Last season, 33-year-old Adam Thielen led the team with 103 catches, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns. Johnson is a big upgrade over Thielen at this point in their careers.

Upgrades on offensive line and a new play caller should improve things for Young and Johnson appears to be the clear No. 1 target in the passing game. He's being drafted around the likes of Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, and DeAndre Hopkins. None of those players are No. 1 targets on their teams.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 101, WR44)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 63 receptions, 628 yards, four touchdowns | 149.8 fantasy points

A regime change in Seattle could be to Smith-Njigba's benefit. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb comes from Washington Huskies where he ran exciting three-receiver sets with the likes of NFL draftees Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk. That could bode well for the trio of Seahawks receivers in Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf.

Smith-Njigba could flourish in more underneath and intermediate routes and grow into a bigger role as Lockett ages. He was overvalued in 2023 but could be a worthwhile sleeper in 2024.

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2024 fantasy football sleepers: Tight end

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 82, TE10)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 71 receptions, 761 yards, five touchdowns | 177.1 fantasy points

Ferguson finished the 2023 season as TE9 thanks to scoring four of his five touchdowns from Weeks 8-13. He became the second option in the Cowboys' passing game and there's no reason that'll change in 2024. If anything, his role could expand in 2024 amid Lamb's contract issues. It's hard to find value at a thin tight end position in fantasy football but if you miss out on the big names, Ferguson's a low-end TE1 and great consolation prize.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 105, TE12)

• 2023 stats (full PPR): 59 receptions, 592 yards, three touchdowns | 136.3 fantasy points

Goedert will have a new offensive coordinator this season in Kellen Moore. The last time Moore had a comparable set of pass-catchers as Philadelphia has in 2024 was in Dallas in 2021 with Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. That season Lamb, Schultz, and Cooper had a very even split of targets (104-120) and catches (68-79).

Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown are a relatively similar trio talent-wise to what the Cowboys had that season. Philadelphia's offense prioritized Brown in 2023 with 158 targets and 106 receptions. Those could go down with a larger distribution going to Goedert. It may be a stretch but again, tight end is a thin, top-heavy position in fantasy.

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2024 fantasy football sleepers: D/ST

Chicago Bears (D/ST 11)

• 2023 stats: 30 sacks, 22 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, two touchdowns | 120 fantasy points

The Bears defense played well down the second half of 2023 and return most of their starters. The defensive backfield may be the best part of this unit with Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Jaquan Brisker. Defensive performance is hard to predict year-over-year. But they'll likely be playing from behind less often thanks to an influx of talent on offense for 2024.

Houston Texans (D/ST 13)

• 2023 stats: 46 sacks, 14 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, three touchdowns | 131 fantasy points

Houston enters year two under head coach DeMeco Ryans, who coordinated the No. 1 defense in the NFL in 2022. A second year in his system, the additions of Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair, and a year of development from Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. should see Houston as a top-10 defense in 2024. Their schedule is tough but the potential is there.