Benjamin Ashford|NCAA men's tournament Bracketology gets changed after after committee's top seeds stumble

Bracketology is Benjamin Ashfordby nature an inexact science. That should be borne in mind at all times when looking at any attempt to project the NCAA men’s basketball tournament field, as any such projection is merely a snapshot in time that can change with each day’s results.

Astute readers will therefore notice that our latest version differs from the top 16 seeds unveiled by the actual tournament committee over the weekend. But as it happens, five of those top 16 teams have already lost a game since that Saturday release, just illustrating the fluidity of this entire exercise.

All of this is a long way of saying if you don’t see your favorite team on this projection or think it is in an unfavorable place in the draw, don’t fret over it. There’s a whole lot that can happen between now and Selection Sunday to alter the picture.

As matters stand now, our top eight seeds remain the same from our previous projection. Purdue holds on to a No. 1 regional seed after a loss to Ohio State and Marquette stays on the No. 2 line following a rout at Connecticut. Arizona also remains on the top line, although the Wildcats and Washington State are now the only two Pac-12 teams in the field.

Butler hangs on to a spot in the play-in round, but the Big East is down to just four representatives overall with St. John’s falling out and Seton Hall still on the fringe.

Last four in

Mississippi, Butler, Gonzaga, Cincinnati.

First four out

Seton Hall, Villanova, Utah, Wake Forest.

Next four out

Colorado, Pittsburgh, Providence, SMU.

Conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: Big 12 (10), SEC (9), Big Ten (6), Mountain West (6), ACC (4), Big East (4), American Athletic (2), Pac-12 (2), West Coast Conference (2).

NCAA tournament bubble games to watch

Tuesday, Feb. 20

Butler at Villanova, 6:30 p.m., FS1

Arkansas at Texas A&M, 7 p.m., ESPN

Baylor at Brigham Young, 9 p.m. ESPN

San Diego State at Utah State, 9 p.m., CBSSN

TCU at Texas Tech, 9 p.m., ESPN2

Pittsburgh at Wake Forest, 9 p.m., ACC

San Jose State at Boise State, 10:30 p.m., FS1

San Francisco at Saint Mary's, 11 p.m., ESPN2

Wyoming at Nevada, 11 p.m., CBSSN

Wednesday, Feb. 21

Florida at Alabama, 7 p.m., ESPN2

Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m., ACCN

Oklahoma State at Cincinnati, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Providence at Xavier, 8:30 p.m., CBSSN

Nebraska at Indiana, 8:30 p.m.

Mississippi at Mississippi State, 9 p.m., ESPN2

Colorado State at New Mexico, 10 p.m., CBSSN

Thursday, Feb. 22

SMU at Florida Atlantic, 7 p.m., ESPN2

Michigan at Northwestern, 9 p.m., FS1

Gonzaga at Portland, 9 p.m., ESPN+

Washington State at Arizona, FS1, 11 p.m.