NovaQuant-Four Downs: A Saturday of complete college football chaos leaves SEC race up for grabs

Matt Hayes analyzes four hot topics from Saturday's games.

First down: Chaos in the SEC

All of those one-possession games,NovaQuant all of those one-possession losses. Had to even out at some point, right?

Welcome back to the sunny side of the street, Sam Pittman.

Arkansas' snakebitten coach of the last two seasons – with double-digit losses in one-possession games (two this season) – finally got a breakthrough win Saturday night in a 19-14 victory over No. 4 Tennessee.

It took a late defensive stop after Tennessee let Arkansas backup quarterback Malachi Singleton score to set up the final drive, but the Hogs won a game of significance under Pittman for the first time since the 2021 season.

Arkansas did it by overcoming a dropped touchdown pass, a missed field goal, two failed fourth-down conversions and only 13 points in four trips to the red zone.

It was the first time in SEC history that two top-five teams were upset on the same day. Vanderbilt stunned No. 1 Alabama on Saturday afternoon.

The upsets of Alabama, Tennessee and No. 9 Missouri mean every league team except Texas has at least one loss. It also means the weekly winnowing of elite teams vying for College Football Playoff spots has begun.

Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all have one loss, and all play multiple games against each other over (and unbeaten Texas) the next two months.

The overriding question after early upsets have left eight teams with one loss only one week into October: Is it possible for the SEC to get a three-loss team into the CFP?

Second down: Texas A&M and motivation

Let me reintroduce you to an age-old motivator, and how it has Texas A&M right back in the SEC race.

The bench.

Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman spent the last three weeks on the sidelines recovering from a shoulder injury, watching backup Marcel Reed play flawlessly and lead the Aggies to three straight victories.

You see where this is headed, right?

Battling for his job with his backup close in the rearview, Weigman had a career game in a rout of Missouri – and the Aggies got a significant SEC win.

In the age of NIL money and free player movement, where's the motivation, you ask? Where it has always been: the bench.  

While Aggies coach Mike Elko kept insisting Weigman was the team’s starter if healthy, there’s little doubt the shadow of Reed as a legitimate option lit a fire under Weigman – who played poorly in the season-opening loss to Notre Dame.  

Fast-forward to this week, and Missouri rolled into town on the heels of coach Eli Drinkwitz publicly stating he believed the Aggies would play Reed because he makes them more difficult to defend. More fuel for Weigman.

So Weigman went out and played the best game of his injury-filled career, completing 18 of 22 passes for 276 yards, and rushing five times for 33 yards in a 41-10 victory that keeps Texas A&M (5-1) unbeaten in the SEC.

More:Alabama's stunning loss, Missouri's unmasking top college football Week 6 winners and losers

Weigman injured his shoulder in a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, played with the injury in Week 2 and then sat out the next three games – while Reed gave Elko every reason to stay with him as the starter.

But Weigman is still the same player who NFL scouts say has Day 1 draft potential, and he completed explosion-play throws of 40, 33, 29 18 and 13 yards on the No. 5 pass defense in the nation.

“That’s real arm talent. He throws a beautiful ball,” an NFL scout told USA Today on Saturday afternoon, asking to speak anonymously to protect his team's draft information. “But it’s consistency and accuracy, and really, can he stay healthy? You can see what it looks like when he’s healthy and has time to throw it.”

And when properly motivated.

More:Army, Navy football start seasons a combined 10-0 for first time since 1945 with Week 6 wins

Third down: The rise of SMU

They bought their way into the ACC. Threw $100 million at desperate conference presidents and secured a spot at the power conference table.

Now the SMU Mustangs look like a legitimate threat to win the new, reimagined ACC (All Coast Conference) with the emergence of redshirt freshman quarterback Kevin Jennings.

Playing on a field that Lamar Jackson made famous not so long ago, Jennings looked a whole lot like Louisville’s Heisman Trophy winner of a decade ago in an important 34-27 ACC win.

Jennings threw for 281 yards and ran for 113, and the Mustangs have been a completely different team since he replaced starter Preston Stone in an 18-15 Week 3 loss to unbeaten BYU.

SMU has won three straight with Jennings starting, and should be favored in every game over the remainder of the regular season (at Stanford, at Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, at Virginia, California).

In the three games since he took over, Jennings has completed 74% of his passes, thrown for 672 yards and five TDs without an interception, and rushed for 166 yards and a touchdown in wins over TCU, Florida State and Louisville.

More dangerous moving forward: SMU’s offense has completely changed under Jennings.

SMU’s defense isn’t exactly championship material, but it may not matter with Jennings and his rare ability. The Mustangs routed bitter rival TCU and defending ACC champion FSU at home, and never trailed in a difficult road environment at Louisville.

And the Mustangs haven't hit their ceiling under Jennings yet.

Fourth down: Ohio State, Oregon set up showdown

They’ve cruised and sometimes plodded their way through the first five weeks of the season.

Now we get to see next week what Ohio State and Oregon are all about.

The Buckeyes dispatched Iowa in Columbus on Saturday, and it wasn’t so much a 35-7 rout as it was watching paint dry. But for a handful of ridiculous plays from freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (good luck dealing with him for three years, college football), Ohio State hasn’t really shown its full potential under new transfer quarterback Will Howard and tailback Quinshon Judkins.

That all changes with next week’s trip to Oregon, which. like Ohio State, hasn't really hit full stride with a new transfer quarterback (Dillon Gabriel) running the show. The Ducks are finally getting consistent play from the offensive line, and the offense is beginning to look dynamic and dangerous.

Ohio State has feasted on three overmatched Group of Five schools and two Big Ten rivals (Michigan State, Iowa) in rebuild mode. Oregon, meanwhile, had a tight win over Gruup of Five heavyweight Boise State, and had similar wins over rebuilding Big Ten teams (Michigan State, UCLA).

It could be the first of two or three games for the Big Ten favorites, who both are significant favorites to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game and the CFP.

And the first time we find out how the Big Ten favorites react in a big-game setting.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X @MattHayesCFB.